Project Title:

Feasibility of Numerical Thunderstorm Forecasts for Specific KSC Work Complexes

13.03-1424
900379
Feasibility of Numerical Thunderstorm Forecasts for Specific KSC Work Complexes

Abstract:

Activities at KSC continue to become more weather sensitive, resulting in the need
for improved forecasts of thunderstorms and their associated phenomena both for KSC
as a whole and, particularly, for specific work complexes over periods of 24 hours
or more. Mesoscale numerical prognostic models appear to offer the potential for
enhanced forecast accuracy. A new, nested grid, non-hydrostatic model (ARAMS, the
Advanced Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) is believed capable of predicting
the details of the local terrain forcing which results in various thunderstorms related
to the Atlantic sea breeze, including the smaller-scaler (<5 km) perturbations induced
by rivers and islands in the KSC area. Climatological and modeling studies of one
such phenomena, the Merritt Island Thunderstorm (MIT), will serve as a test of the
plausibility of producing useful numerical model-generated forecasts for work complexes
on the scale of 8 km across during the upcoming 12-24 hour period. Data from the
summer KABLE experiment will be utilized. The project can also serve as part of the
planning for the 1991 CAPE experiment. Tests will be conducted to assess whether
new, low-cost graphics supercomputers can provide computational power and graphics
sufficient to forecast MIT-scale phenomena within operational constraints.
There is a growing requirement for improved regional forecasting systems within military
operations, electric utilities, nuclear energy, water, forest and range management
and national weather services. New mesoscale numerical forecasting systems tailored
for specific users and locations, combined with graphics supercomputers workstations
are evolving into a significant market segment during the 1990s.
thunderstorm forecasting, mesoscale numerical prognostic model